The election of Republican Scott Brown to the vacant Senate seat in Massachusetts
has dealt a potentially fatal blow to President Obama's legislative agenda,
particularly his aspiration to provide near-universal healthcare coverage for
uninsured Americans.
The election of Brown, who replaces the late Edward Kennedy, means that the
Democrats have lost the 60-seat super majority in the Senate that they need
to pass a health reform bill. As a result, Republicans can employ the dreaded filibuster
tactic, which could eventually see proposed healthcare legislation talked out of the
Senate. Worryingly for Obama, the Massachusetts vote could also be said to represent
a mini-referendum on his first year in office in a state which traditionally
elects Democrats to Congress.
While both the Senate and the House of Representatives have approved differing
versions of healthcare reform legislation, they remain at odds over how the
bill, which is estimated to cost in the region of USD1 trillion, should be paid
for. The main revenue raiser in the Senate bill is a 40% excise tax on high-end
"Cadillac" health insurance plans. But House Republicans favor the use of a
5.4% surtax on individuals with annual adjusted gross income (AGI) of USD500,000
and on couples with annual AGI of USD1m.
While this small, but important, change in the complexion of the Senate gives
President Obama a major headache as he attempts to force though healthcare
reform – his flagship policy – before he delivers the State of the Union address
next month, there are some avenues open to the administration and Democrats
in Congress to ensure that the bill can still pass. One is for the House to
simply vote on the Senate bill as written without going through the painful
exercise of attempting to reconcile the competing proposals. Once approved in
the House, the bill could then be signed into law by the President. However,
many House Democrats are opposed to aspects of the Senate bill, especially the
Cadillac tax, and this is unlikely to be an option.
Alternatively, Democrats
could attempt to ram through the legislation before Brown takes his seat, which
is currently occupied by Paul Kirk, former assistant to Kennedy, although
this could be viewed as something of an underhand tactic at a time when Obama
is attempting to clean up the legislative process in Washington.
More likely, the President and key Congressional Democrats will have to spend
many weeks cajoling moderate Republicans in the Senate into accepting some form
of compromise, which could see many of the current proposals watered down, including
the new taxes. In the worst case scenario for the Obama administration, negotiations
towards a final bill may have to be abandoned if an agreement cannot be reached
any time soon, at least temporarily.
What is clear is that Brown opposes the healthcare legislation currently under
consideration in Congress and he has vowed to vote against it.
"It will raise taxes, increase government spending and lower the quality
of care," Brown says on his campaign website. "I support strengthening
the existing private market system with policies that will drive down costs
and make it easier for people to purchase affordable insurance."
"I am a free enterprise advocate who believes that lower taxes can encourage
economic growth. Raising taxes stifles growth, weakens the economy and puts
more people out of work," he declared.